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What Works on Wall Street: A Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time
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Amazon.com Review
Investors -- be they aggressive or conservative, self-directed or professionally managed -- are always on the lookout for an edge. And in James O'Shaughnessy's What Works on Wall Street: A Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time, they'll find a solid one: authoritative analysis of popular practices from the past. The author examines three decades of stock market data to show how 15 of the most common investment tactics have fared over time.
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From the Author
What Works on Wall Street was probably the most anticipated investment book of 1996. James O'Shaughnessy gained unprecedented access to Standard & Poor's Compustat database and back-tested the returns generated by various clearly defined investment approaches over the past 40 years. The book challenges quite a bit of the conventional wisdom about portfolio management and is a compelling, although statistically flawed, work. In What Works on Wall Street, O'Shaughnessy examines the performance of the highest and lowest price/earnings, price/sales, price/book value, relative strength, yield and earnings growth stocks over various periods, trying to find which types of companies tended to perform best. Although you can quibble with a lot of the data, the sheer magnitude of the task O'Shaughnessy has undertaken is impressive. His final, multifactor strategies that generated the best investments over time are very interesting, particularly the Cornerstone Value approach, which is very similar to the Dow Dividend Approach with a few other bells and whistles. O'Shaughnessy's book and its findings should be read, discussed and disputed by all investors. However much one can criticize the work for being too focused on the plight of professional money managers looking to pick fifty stocks and not individual investors looking to pick five, the information is valuable and compelling. The only warning that I would give to readers is to be aware of a methodological error in the way O'Shaughnessy does the statistics. Because of the time required, O'Shaughnessy and his team looked at how the 50 highest or lowest stocks in any particular group performed. Extrapolating the performance of extreme data points to the entire set of data being studied is not entirely correct, as there are many processes in nature where the middle actually does not act like the extremes. Mass and velocity in physics are one example, where super-light and super-dense objects both do not obey the laws of physics, while everything in between does. With this caveat, I think an investor can learn a lot from the book.
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Product details
Hardcover: 324 pages
Publisher: Mcgraw-Hill; 1 edition (August 1996)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0070479852
ISBN-13: 978-0070479852
Product Dimensions:
1 x 8 x 9.8 inches
Shipping Weight: 2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.0 out of 5 stars
68 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#943,106 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
A couple of reviews I read before purchase claimed that there was not much new material in the fourth edition compared to the third. Those reviews are not correct. There are a several new strategies tested and (somewhat) improved presentation of the data.When the first edition came out it was a pioneering attempt to quantify various well-known trading strategies through backtesting. That was pretty valuable! Now, of course, everybody backtests their strategies before losing money on them. Still, this book is a good introduction to popular strategies (especially in the "value" realm), and an overview of what sort of things you can learn from backtesting.It is also fair to point out that O'Shaughnessy is far from consistent in his testing, and his charts and graphs tend to make up in volume what they lack in clarity. In the end, if you are learning the art of stock screening, you likely want this book. But you should plan to learn a lot more than what you get here.
Investment books taut a number of filtering strategies to find profitable stock investments. This book provides valuable information on what works and what doesn't work. The method is systematic and scientific. The book contains a lots of data, but less analysis. It remains, nonetheless, a valuable work and belongs on the shelf of most serious investors.The one significant weakness in O'Shaugnessy method is that it does not reflect the impact of a more complete trading system that includes money management and technically-based entry and exit poitns. The investment plan used to compare stock selection strategies is to run a stock filter annually and to rebalance the portfolio into the 10, 25 or 50 stocks in the screen on an equal weight basis. There are no stop loss orders, no position sizing based on volatility, and no trade timing based on whether the security is trending down or in a trading range.O'Shaughnessy concludes that value-oriented factors (price-to-sales, price-to-book, price-to-cash flow, price-to-earnings, and dividend yield) are much more important to stock performance long term than growth factors (earnings growth rate, return on equity, etc.), except for relative strength. While this may be true using the annual rebalance approach under which O'Shaughnessy tested the stock selection strategies, it may not be true in a more complete investment/trading system that includes technical entry and exit points to ensure that the buyer does not pay too much for a given stock or run to much downside risk, position sizing and stop orders. I would like to see these results re-run in conjunction with a basic objective trading system that includes a money management component (i.e., stop loss, risk-based position sizing, etc.). It may be that value factors are vital to O'Shaughnessy selection strategy because they serve as a proxy for the missing money management and timing components of a complete trading system.Despite this weakness, the book is a significant contribution to our understanding of which fundamental factors are most important to selecting less risky, more profitable investments for the long term. Recommended.
This is the rare 5 star ***** book. It is no nonsense and gives you exactly what its title suggests. It shows what has really worked on Wall Street from 1951 to 1996 by using the Standard and Poors compustat data base to simulate what would have happened if an investor (or mutual fund) would have bought the top 50 stocks meeting the criteria measurement. Example: Highest P/E ratios, top 50 price increases, top 50 price decreases, best dividends, high or low book to price value, etc.He goes further by breaking the top 50 into only the large cap meeting this criteria and if he bought out of all stocks available. He measures stocks and their performance from almost every imaginable angle. It is fascinating and educational to see what the final dollar amount is for each investment approach. He also shows how each style performed in each decade and how each percentile of stock did in each category.(Example: how the top 5 stocks did with low P/E's versus the bottom 5 in the top 50 stock group, this helps the individual stock investor focus his investments).Here are the books big findings. If you took $10,000 and invested it in 1951 and invested it in the following top 50 stocks that met the following criteria, while resetting it every year to match your criteria, in 1996 you would have had:Top 3 ways to investPSR<1,high relative strength,All stocks $12,999,698Earnings yield>5,High relative strength,All stocks $12,570,451Price/Book<1,High relative strength,all stocks $12,552,352Worst 3 ways to investLowest 1-year relative strength, All stocks $29,666High PSR, All stocks $64,220High Pcfl,All Stocks $224,741I really like this book because It is scientific, not opionated and shows that Warren Buffet was right all a long, buy stocks that are a great value based on their sales, and price to book with low P/E's and strong relative price strength and you will always win in the long term.
I must recant my earlier 1-star review. While Mr. O's career switches - fund manager to Netfolio back to fund manger -- are still anything but encouraging, one of his stock picking methods is currently working. I discovered this by looking at the portfolio of one of the funds he started. Basically, it's the stuff I own and it's doing better than the averages. (In fact, it's doing better than any fund group except gold and bear market funds.) O'Shaughnessy offers several methods for stock selection based on his analysis of several decades of data.The statistical work may be flawed as others have said but his methods are making money! (In this bear market, that is quite a boast.) His challenges of well-known methods that don't work may be even more relevant. (First rule of investing -- don't lose money.)
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