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The China Fantasy: Why Capitalism Will Not Bring Democracy to China
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Review
"If Americans revered veteran China correspondents the way Chinese communists revere their founding revolutionaries, former Los Angeles Times bureau chief Jim Mann would justly be hailed as an 'immortal.'" -Clay Chandler, editor, Fortune Asia "Mr. Mann has perfectly described the blend of hope and cynicism that currently underpins American policy toward China." -Gordon S. Chang, The New York Sun
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About the Author
James Mann is the senior writer in residence at the CSIS International Security Program and the author of two critically acclaimed books: About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China from Nixon to Clinton and Beijing Jeep. Previously, he was a long-time correspondent with the Los Angeles Times, and his writing has also appeared in The New Republic and The Atlantic Monthly.
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Product details
Paperback: 160 pages
Publisher: Penguin Books; Reprint edition (January 29, 2008)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0143112929
ISBN-13: 978-0143112921
Product Dimensions:
5 x 0.5 x 7.7 inches
Shipping Weight: 6.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.8 out of 5 stars
24 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#249,111 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Over 10 years after publication, Mann's "Third Scenario" is looking like reality today. China's hegemonic, Leninist party rule is strong as ever, the crush of any dissent as fierce, and any hope for democracy or human rights is absent. America's passion for democracy and human rights has been supplanted by a lust for profit, and China's strategic vision has enabled them to play decades of American leaders like a violin.Only 4 stars, though, because -- besides being dated (his predictions about post-2008 Olympics were quite accurate!), it's more a Readers Digest version of history and events. The 4 stars are earned for simply being one of the few to acknowledge and report on this tragedy.
I have read over a dozen books on China recently, and Mann goes into detail on one important aspect that no one else mentions: how our own government officials are being bought out and corrupted by China. He names names and dollar figures on the many American political leaders who have left office and gone directly onto the payroll of China as 'consultants' paid to use their US govt contacts to made introductions. No wonder our government is unwilling to take action re China's hold on our Treasury Bills and economy as a strategic threat or do something about all their predatory economic practices. For example, their economic miracle is based on undercutting the prices of their competition - but China has falsely set their currency exchange rate below actual market values. We complain and do nothing. Why? Could it be because every China expert in the State department retires and becomes a consultant in the pay of China? Some famous names who now work for China as 'consultants' - Kissinger, Madeleine Albright, Clinton's national security advisor Sandy Berger, William Cohen (Clinton's defense secretary), Republican Carla Hills (the US Trade Rep), REpublican Brent Snowcroft (national security advisor to Bush senior).Other than this very interesting insight, I found Mann is a lazy researcher and this books largely reads like a padded magazine article. He tends to make assertions without going into the facts in enough detail to make them persuasive -even when he is correct. For example, he mentions China's harmful role in international politics, but doesn't give the actual stories - that they are the suppliers of missile technology to Iran for example, and are aggressively pursuing oil stakes in the Middle East by arming every despotic regime that more responsible nations are shunning.If the thesis of China becoming neither democractic nor falling apart interests you, there is a highly intelligent in-depth analysis called China's Trapped Transition. The Limits of Developmental Autocracy.
The middle-class angst over globalization (which is increasingly percieved to be a losing proposition) that politicians like Senator Jim Webb are riding into office will become a tidal wave if Mann's argument that the Chinese economy could thrive while the authoritarian political system remains largely the same bears out over time. Currently, the American public is not invited to ponder this possibility because between the doom and gloom prophets of Chinese empire or impending collapse and the utopian dreams of businessmen and politicians, no middle ground or "Third Option" can see the light of the day.Mann manages to sketch out his thesis but fails to explore further, offering only limited detail and leading the average reader to conclusions that need to be debated and studied. Further, in describing the political ploys utilized by the utopian believers of a "just around the corner" Chinese democracy, he performs a great service but fails to follow through by offering much in the range of alternatives to bring the truth to the light of day.In the end, an intriguing argument that awaits a better book. Best to find used or just read it in the library on a rainy day.
The observations made in this 2007 book are even more relevant in today's China. By all appearances, China is in fact not moving towards democracy, even as its economy has advanced and its wealth greatly increased. I particularly appreciate the point that the growing urban middle class is not receptive to democracy because they are simply outnumbered by the huge ranks of rural poor, and would stand to lose their privileges in any nationwide free elections. Therefore the Starbucks-sipping urban elite, far from demanding political reform, are becoming a new base of support for the regime. I've lived in China 3+ years and find most of Mann's points to be spot on - highly recommended.
The premise of this rather long essay has been presented before. However, the author does a good job in illustrating the influence of small interest groups on the policy of the United States. Perhaps low cost goods from China have increased the standard of living of US citizens. In the short term this may be true; however, in the longterm it is unlikely. Short term profit interests dictate China policy. Middle Class America is hollowed out. Folks need to consider spending a bit more but consuming a bit less and have that money stay within the local ecomony. I only need three pairs of jeans and not 8 if it keeps my neighbor's children in school and healthy.China will not modify its behavior without the outside pressure of the US consumer. The Japanese have a term for it: gaihatsu. It worked. Toyota now manufactures a large number of the cars it sells in the United States. Same principles should apply to China.I personally buy as few Chinese manufactured products as possible (this is not easy); but at least I try.
A must-read for anybody who has an interest in international affairs, especially the bilateral relationship between the United States and China. If you've ever wondered why US politicians seem to turn a blind eye to the human rights abuses in China, this short book is a great exploration of why, and all of the underlying logic by which they operate their agenda of rights-blindness.
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